The world heaves a sigh of relief. Millions across the globe spent anxious hours waiting for doomsday after the bombastic threats by US President Donald Trump.
The announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the USA/Israel came as both a surprise and a relief though the pace deal hangs in balance amid heavy bombardment of Lebanon by Israel in last 24 hours, killing over 250 people.
The question is: how long will this ceasefire last? Can we truly call it a ceasefire, or is it merely a pause?
Do both sides have the appetite to continue the war?
If one examines the ten points on which the ceasefire has been agreed, they appear heavily tilted towards Tehran. The Persian nation seems to have accepted the ceasefire on its own terms.
The Americans have backed off after issuing existential threats to Iran. This suggests that Trump, too, was looking for an opening—a way to exit the Iranian quagmire.
In the five-week-long war, Washington has not achieved its objectives. It kept shifting the goalposts, yet the regime in Tehran remains intact. In fact, the Iranian leadership has consolidated its hold even more strongly.
Iran now presents a new face at the international level. It has perhaps never been as widely accepted in the global community as it is today. The resilience it has shown positions it as a leading voice of the Global South.
Iran has gained acceptance among both Shia and Sunni communities. Tehran has also exposed vulnerabilities in American military power.
The US appears diminished and may find it harder to exert international pressure without the full backing of its NATO allies.
However, the key question remains: will this ceasefire hold? Some of the ten points are maximalist and may be difficult for Washington to accept.
Will the US agree to military withdrawal from the Middle East? Can it allow sanctions on Iran to be lifted? Will it accept demands for reparations?
These contentious issues could lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire.
Iran does not trust the US, and for any deal to materialize into a lasting agreement, the international community must be involved. The United Nations should mediate, and global stakeholders must support the process to ensure durability.
The US has also lost the trust of some traditional allies, making it harder to build consensus unless commitments are formalized.
One country that appears to have gained from the Iran-US conflict is Pakistan. Its diplomatic stature has risen significantly. By positioning itself as a mediator, the Islamic republic has moved closer to the US while retaining Iran’s trust.
Pakistan has thus acquired a new geopolitical profile. If it successfully brokers a deal, it could emerge as a major beneficiary, projecting itself as a responsible power rather than the image often projected by India.
The Iran-US war has disrupted the international order. While it is still unclear what shape the new order will take, one thing is evident: Iran has emerged as a key beneficiary. Despite physical damage, it has gained significantly in reputation.
During the five-week conflict, the US maintained operational superiority, but it is Iran that appears to have secured the strategic upper hand. It is Iran that will continue to influence control over the Strait of Hormuz.